NBC’s decision to move Jay Leno’s talk show to prime time this fall was a calculated risk for the network. Would his loyal late night audience follow him to the earlier time slot? There’s no longer much doubt that the answer is no.
NBC’s audience at 10 p.m. is down sharply. But the other networks haven’t picked up all the slack. Instead, that time slot has become prime time for DVR viewing, which is just more bad news for all local stations that depend on a strong lead-in audience for their late newscasts.
But the news for NBC affiliates is just plain dismal. From Chicago to Buffalo to Providence, R.I., NBC stations are reeling in the ratings. In the November book, the CBS station in Providence beat the NBC station at 11 p.m. for the first time in 16 years. In Chicago, the local late newscast on NBC-owned WMAQ dropped to third place. Same thing happened at the NBC affiliate in Buffalo. If the local station managers were worried about the Leno effect before, you couldn’t blame them for being panicked now.
Leno’s ratings may have bottomed out, but there’s not much upside in sight. There’s also no indication that NBC has any plan to replace him. They moved him to save money, after all, and they haven’t suddenly come into a whole bunch of cash to invest in a new drama or comedy. So for the time being, the affiliates may be stuck.
As for the future, a lot will depend on the expected sale of NBC to Comcast. One report suggests that could pave the way for moving Leno back to 11, and giving the affiliates the full 10 p.m. hour for local news. Now that could be interesting.
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Add one more market to the Leno effect list. Baltimore’s WBAL lost 58 percent of its key demographic audience (25-54), according to the Baltimore Sun.