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Since the ATSC 3.0 standard was approved by the FCC in 2017, broadcasters have touted its tremendous capabilities and potential to create new revenue streams through datacasting, targeted advertising and other new, IP-based applications. A December 2021 forecast from research firm BIA Advisory Services even projected 3.0 datacasting revenues of $3 to $7 billion by 2027, rising to a range of perhaps $6 to $15 billion by 2030.
Much progress has been made in rolling out the new standard, with 3.0 signals now available in 76 markets and a range of “NextGen TV” receivers available at retail. But new revenue streams from 3.0 have been slow to arrive, due to bandwidth constraints for early 3.0 stations, low consumer penetration and the explosive growth in FAST channels that has shifted some station groups’ focus. Not even the most ardent NextGen TV supporters now expect the industry will meet BIA’s early revenue projections.
But dollars should finally start being generated by 3.0 in 2025, if not sooner, said top technology executives speaking at TVNewsCheck’s Local TV Strategies conference at the NAB Show New York last week. Datacasting will be the first meaningful 3.0 business, as originally expected, while targeted advertising revenues may not come until 2028.
“I believe the first dollar is imminent, and it’s not in 2025, it’s in 2024,” said Kerry Oslund, VP strategy & business development, E.W. Scripps, speaking on the panel “Mining NextGen TV for ROI in 2025” moderated by this reporter.
A ‘Frameable Dollar’
Scripps’ first datacasting customer will likely be a systems